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* 1. Current Green House Gas (GHG) emissions may lead to higher Arctic temperatures, and thus to faster sea ice decline, than predicted by today’s climate model simulations with the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Rank the effect of the following GHG emission control scenarios on likely Arctic sea-ice decline by 2050.   

  Strongly decelerate Decelerate No effect Accelerate Strongly accelerate I don’t know
Business as usual
Strict greenhouse gas emission controls
Looser than today’s control in greenhouse gas emissions

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* 2. What type of inter-annual variability of Arctic sea-ice extent would be expected by 2050?

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* 3. By 2050 wave and current conditions in the Arctic will:

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* 4. By 2050 the mobility of the Arctic sea-ice will:

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* 5. How reliable are the seasonal forecasts (3-6 months ahead) of sea-ice climate conditions (sea-ice extent and ice type)? 

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* 6. With 5 being the strongest and 1 the weakest, rank the influence of the following factors on the current accuracy of seasonal Arctic sea-ice forecasts?

  1 2 3 4 5
Lack of access to in-situ data
Lack of scientific knowledge in ice physics
Lack of scientific knowledge in climate mechanisms and their interaction
Lack of computational power
Lack of research funding

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* 7. With 5 being the strongest and 1 the weakest, rank the influence of the following factors on the current accuracy of 7-day sea ice thickness forecast

  1 2 3 4 5
Lack of access to in-situ data
Lack of scientific knowledge in ice physics
Lack of scientific knowledge in climate mechanisms and their interaction
Lack of computational power
Lack of research funding

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* 8. Is increased shipping activity through and in the Arctic expected to affect sea-ice conditions?

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* 9. In 2009 the Arctic Council outlined the following scenarios (Figure 1) for the future of Arctic shipping by 2050. 1. Select the scenario you see unfolding at present and 2. select the scenario with the highest likelihood by 2050.

Figure 1: Source: Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment of the Arctic Council's Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Working Group. (2008) The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-­‐Century: Scenario Narratives Report. p.5

  Arctic Race Arctic Saga Polar Preserve Polar Lows
1. Present
2. Future

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* 10. Please add below any additional comments you may have

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* 11. My expertise is in:

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* 12. My confidence level in answering this questionnaire:

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