SEDNA: Safe maritime operations under extreme conditions: the Arctic caseArctic Resources Survey

Question Title

* 1. According to USGS undiscovered deposits are estimated to be approx. 5.9% and 24.3% of the world’s known oil and gas reserves respectively. With regards to non-fuel minerals, the estimated value of mineral reserves in the Russian Arctic alone are estimated to be approx. two trillion US dollars. Do you consider these estimations accurate?

No, Arctic resources are significantly overpredicted

No, Arctic resources are overpredicted

Yes

No, Arctic resources are underpredicted

No, Arctic resources are significantly underpredicted

I don't know

Question Title

* 2. With 5 being the highest and 1 the smallest, identify the extend of exploitation for the following Arctic resources by 2050

	1	2	3	4	5
Oil	Oil 1	Oil 2	Oil 3	Oil 4	Oil 5
Gas	Gas 1	Gas 2	Gas 3	Gas 4	Gas 5
Mineral fuels (coal)	Mineral fuels (coal) 1	Mineral fuels (coal) 2	Mineral fuels (coal) 3	Mineral fuels (coal) 4	Mineral fuels (coal) 5
Non-fuel minerals	Non-fuel minerals 1	Non-fuel minerals 2	Non-fuel minerals 3	Non-fuel minerals 4	Non-fuel minerals 5
Precious metals	Precious metals 1	Precious metals 2	Precious metals 3	Precious metals 4	Precious metals 5
Wild fisheries	Wild fisheries 1	Wild fisheries 2	Wild fisheries 3	Wild fisheries 4	Wild fisheries 5
Aquacultures	Aquacultures 1	Aquacultures 2	Aquacultures 3	Aquacultures 4	Aquacultures 5
Renewable energy	Renewable energy 1	Renewable energy 2	Renewable energy 3	Renewable energy 4	Renewable energy 5
Tourism	Tourism 1	Tourism 2	Tourism 3	Tourism 4	Tourism 5

Question Title

* 3. Categorise the influence level the following financial factors are expected to have on the exploitation of Arctic resources by 2050

	No influence	Very limited influence	Limited influence	Strong influence	Very strong influence
Oil and Gas price	Oil and Gas price No influence	Oil and Gas price Very limited influence	Oil and Gas price Limited influence	Oil and Gas price Strong influence	Oil and Gas price Very strong influence
Price of natural resources	Price of natural resources No influence	Price of natural resources Very limited influence	Price of natural resources Limited influence	Price of natural resources Strong influence	Price of natural resources Very strong influence
Renewable energy prices	Renewable energy prices No influence	Renewable energy prices Very limited influence	Renewable energy prices Limited influence	Renewable energy prices Strong influence	Renewable energy prices Very strong influence
Growth rate of the global economy	Growth rate of the global economy No influence	Growth rate of the global economy Very limited influence	Growth rate of the global economy Limited influence	Growth rate of the global economy Strong influence	Growth rate of the global economy Very strong influence
Global recession and/or trade wars	Global recession and/or trade wars No influence	Global recession and/or trade wars Very limited influence	Global recession and/or trade wars Limited influence	Global recession and/or trade wars Strong influence	Global recession and/or trade wars Very strong influence

If you feel necessary please comment on the type of influence

Question Title

* 4. Categorise the influence level the following political factors are expected to have on the exploitation of Arctic resources by 2050

	No influence	Very limited influence	Limited influence	Strong influence	Very strong influence
Global policies for de-carbonisation	Global policies for de-carbonisation No influence	Global policies for de-carbonisation Very limited influence	Global policies for de-carbonisation Limited influence	Global policies for de-carbonisation Strong influence	Global policies for de-carbonisation Very strong influence
US non-ratification of the UNCLOS	US non-ratification of the UNCLOS No influence	US non-ratification of the UNCLOS Very limited influence	US non-ratification of the UNCLOS Limited influence	US non-ratification of the UNCLOS Strong influence	US non-ratification of the UNCLOS Very strong influence
Unresolved UNCLOS territorial claims	Unresolved UNCLOS territorial claims No influence	Unresolved UNCLOS territorial claims Very limited influence	Unresolved UNCLOS territorial claims Limited influence	Unresolved UNCLOS territorial claims Strong influence	Unresolved UNCLOS territorial claims Very strong influence
Dispute over the Northwest passage	Dispute over the Northwest passage No influence	Dispute over the Northwest passage Very limited influence	Dispute over the Northwest passage Limited influence	Dispute over the Northwest passage Strong influence	Dispute over the Northwest passage Very strong influence
Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction	Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction No influence	Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction Very limited influence	Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction Limited influence	Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction Strong influence	Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction Very strong influence
Non-Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction	Non-Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction No influence	Non-Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction Very limited influence	Non-Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction Limited influence	Non-Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction Strong influence	Non-Arctic nations current State policies encouraging resource extraction Very strong influence
Lack of State policies for resource extraction	Lack of State policies for resource extraction No influence	Lack of State policies for resource extraction Very limited influence	Lack of State policies for resource extraction Limited influence	Lack of State policies for resource extraction Strong influence	Lack of State policies for resource extraction Very strong influence
Future State policies for resource extraction	Future State policies for resource extraction No influence	Future State policies for resource extraction Very limited influence	Future State policies for resource extraction Limited influence	Future State policies for resource extraction Strong influence	Future State policies for resource extraction Very strong influence

If you feel necessary please comment on the type of influence

Question Title

* 5. With 5 being the highest and 1 the smallest, identify the likelihood of a treaty similar to the 1959 Antarctic Treaty: ‘Recognizing that it is in the interest of all mankind that Arctic (originally: Antarctic) shall continue for ever to be used exclusively for peaceful purposes and shall not become the scene or object of international discord’ for the Arctic.

Question Title

* 6. How likely is it that public concern about potential environmental impacts will have a restraining effect on the exploitation of Arctic resources?

Strongly unlikely

Very unlikely

Likely

Very likely

Strongly likely

I don't know

Question Title

* 7. What level of new infrastructure building, including ship building, will be required to meet the future exploitation of Arctic resources?

Very low

Low

Average

High

Very high

Question Title

* 8. In 2009 the Arctic Council outlined the following scenarios (Figure 1) for the future of Arctic shipping by 2050. 1. Select the scenario you see unfolding at present and 2. select the scenario with the highest likelihood by 2050.

Figure 1: Source: Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment of the Arctic Council's Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Working Group. (2008) The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-‐Century: Scenario Narratives Report. p.5

	Arctic Race	Arctic Saga	Polar Preserve	Polar Lows
1. Present	1. Present Arctic Race	1. Present Arctic Saga	1. Present Polar Preserve	1. Present Polar Lows
2. Future	2. Future Arctic Race	2. Future Arctic Saga	2. Future Polar Preserve	2. Future Polar Lows

SEDNA: Safe maritime operations under extreme conditions: the Arctic case
Arctic Resources

Question Title

Question Title

* 2. With 5 being the highest and 1 the smallest, identify the extend of exploitation for the following Arctic resources by 2050

Question Title

* 3. Categorise the influence level the following financial factors are expected to have on the exploitation of Arctic resources by 2050

Question Title

* 4. Categorise the influence level the following political factors are expected to have on the exploitation of Arctic resources by 2050

Question Title

Question Title

* 6. How likely is it that public concern about potential environmental impacts will have a restraining effect on the exploitation of Arctic resources?

Question Title

* 7. What level of new infrastructure building, including ship building, will be required to meet the future exploitation of Arctic resources?

Question Title

Question Title

* 9. Please add below any additional comments you may have

Question Title

* 10. My expertise is in:

Question Title

* 11. My confidence level in answering this questionnaire: