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* 1. For the three Arctic routes, with varying ice scenarios, assess their influence on potential trading increases. NSR: Northern Sea Route, NWR: North-West Route, TSR: Transpolar Sea Route.

  Very weak Weak Moderate Strong Very strong I don't know
NSR: seasonally ice-free
NSR: earlier melt and later freeze
NWR: seasonally ice-free
NWR: earlier melt and later freeze
TSR: seasonally ice-free
TSR: first-year ice
TSR: perennial ice

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* 2. What change in level of activity is expected in the Arctic by 2050 for:

  Strongly decreased Decreased Remain unaltered Increased Strongly increased I don't know
Destination shipping
Transit shipping
Fishing
Cruise shipping

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* 3.  On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 representing no use and 5 intense use, assess the utilisation level per Arctic route for destination shipping by 2050:

  1 2 3 4 5 I don't know
NSR: seasonally ice-free
NSR: earlier melt and later freeze
NWR: seasonally ice-free
NWR: earlier melt and later freeze
TSR: seasonally ice-free
TSR: first-year ice
TSR: perennial ice

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* 4. On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 representing no use and 5 intense use, assess the utilisation level per Arctic route for transit shipping by 2050:

  1 2 3 4 5 I don't know
NSR: seasonally ice-free
NSR: earlier melt and later freeze
NWR: seasonally ice-free
NWR: earlier melt and later freeze
TSR: seasonally ice-free
TSR: first-year ice
TSR: perennial ice

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* 5. On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 representing no use and 5 intense use, assess the utilisation level per Arctic route for fishing by 2050:

  1 2 3 4 5 I don't know
NSR: seasonally ice-free
NSR: earlier melt and later freeze
NWR: seasonally ice-free
NWR: earlier melt and later freeze
TSR: seasonally ice-free
TSR: first-year ice
TSR: perennial ice

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* 6. On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 representing no use and 5 intense use, assess the utilisation level per Arctic route for cruising by 2050:

  1 2 3 4 5 I don't know
NSR: seasonally ice-free
NSR: earlier melt and later freeze
NWR: seasonally ice-free
NWR: earlier melt and later freeze
TSR: seasonally ice-free
TSR: first-year ice
TSR: perennial ice

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* 7. Assess the potential influence of the following factors on Arctic trading over the next 30 years.

  Very weak Weak Moderate Strong Very strong
Abundance of resources
Accessibility of resources
Price of natural resources
Global economic growth
Global political stability
Political stability between the Arctic nations

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* 8. Assess the potential attractiveness per type of cargo of using Arctic routes for transit shipping.

  Very weak Weak Moderate Strong Very strong I don't know
Oil
Gas: LNG
Bulk
Containers
General cargo
Specialised cargo

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* 9. Assess the potential attractiveness per type of cargo of using Arctic routes for destination shipping.

  Very weak Weak Moderate Strong Very strong I don't know
Oil
Gas: LNG
Bulk
Containers
General cargo
Specialised cargo

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* 10. Assess the potential influence of the following technological outcomes on Arctic shipping over the next 30 years.

  Very weak Weak Moderate Strong Very strong I don't know
Real-time and whole Arctic weather forecasting
Optimized provision of navigational assistance for Arctic ice barriers
Enhanced ship hull/system performance   awareness for tactical navigation in Arctic ice
Enhanced navigational awareness for tactical navigation in Arctic ice
De-icing solutions
Experiences gained and lessons learned from the Yamal LNG system

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* 11. In 2009 the Arctic Council outlined the following scenarios (Figure 1) for the future of Arctic shipping by 2050. 1. Select the scenario you see unfolding at present and 2. select the scenario with the highest likelihood by 2050.

Figure 1: Source: Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment of the Arctic Council's Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Working Group. (2008) The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-­‐Century: Scenario Narratives Report. p.5

  Arctic Race Arctic Saga Polar Preserve Polar Lows
1. Present
2. Future

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* 12. Please add below any additional comments you may have

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* 13. My expertise is in:

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* 14. My confidence level in answering this questionnaire is:

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